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Elemental Shaman DPS simulator

Runs a boss fight a thousand times and shows every outcome, not one number. Every ability, talent and item comes from the WoW Forever client, at the level 30 cap (40 is Speculation); Classic's combat rules fill the gaps and are labelled.

Level 30

A level 30 Elemental Shaman with the recommended build and the best gear for the level does 93.6 DPS on a level 30 target over a 60-second fight; 90% of fights land between 84.7 and 100.6 DPS. Half the fights land between 90.7 and 97.1 DPS; the lowest was 72.7 and the highest 106.3 (1,000 fights, seed 1, average ±0.29).

Talents: the recommended build, Elemental dungeon (30).

Damage by ability

Lightning Bolt: 75.1% of the damage, 70.3 DPS
Flame Shock: 13.3% of the damage, 12.5 DPS
Searing Totem: 11.5% of the damage, 10.8 DPS

Stat weights (1 point of spell power = 1)

spell power: 1.00 (0.373 DPS per point, ±0.002)
crit rating: 0.08 (0.028 DPS per point, ±0.002)
hit rating: 0.20 (0.075 DPS per point, ±0.012)
Intellect: 0.58 (0.218 DPS per point, ±0.016)
Spirit: 0.00 (0.000 DPS per point, ±0.000)
haste rating: 0.07 (0.025 DPS per point, ±0.014)

What the sim does for this spec

Searing Totem kept down
Flame Shock kept up
Lightning Bolt
Elemental Focus (Clearcasting)

Left out: Chain Lightning and Lava Burst (not learned by 30); Mana Spring Totem and other party totems.

Gear

Level 40 (Speculation: above the beta cap)

A level 40 Elemental Shaman with the recommended build and the best gear for the level does 134.9 DPS on a level 40 target over a 60-second fight; 90% of fights land between 115.8 and 157.2 DPS. Half the fights land between 125.4 and 142.8 DPS; the lowest was 101.5 and the highest 187.8 (1,000 fights, seed 1, average ±0.78).

Talents: the recommended build, Elemental dungeon (40).

Damage by ability

Lightning Bolt: 73.7% of the damage, 99.2 DPS
Flame Shock: 12.7% of the damage, 17.1 DPS
Searing Totem: 9.8% of the damage, 13.2 DPS
Lightning Overload: 3.8% of the damage, 5.1 DPS

Stat weights (1 point of spell power = 1)

spell power: 1.00 (0.310 DPS per point, ±0.002)
crit rating: 0.26 (0.080 DPS per point, ±0.008)
hit rating: 0.37 (0.115 DPS per point, ±0.025)
Intellect: 1.82 (0.565 DPS per point, ±0.025)
Spirit: 0.02 (0.006 DPS per point, ±0.004)
haste rating: 0.05 (0.015 DPS per point, ±0.024)

What the sim does for this spec

Searing Totem kept down
Flame Shock kept up
Lightning Bolt
Elemental Focus (Clearcasting)
Lightning Overload (10%: a second bolt for half damage)

Left out: Chain Lightning and Lava Burst (not learned by 30); Mana Spring Totem and other party totems.

Gear

Head: Spellpower Goggles Xtreme
Neck: Glowing Eye of Mordresh
Shoulder: Shadow Council Apprentice's Mantle
Back: Tattered Kirin Tor Cloak
Chest: Robe of the Magi
Wrist: Dryad's Wrist Bindings
Hands: Gloves of the Greatfather
Waist: Highlander's Cloth Girdle
Legs: Red Mageweave Pants
Feet: Earthen Silk Slippers
Finger: Lorekeeper's Ring
Finger: Bloodmaster's Ring
Trinket: Worgenbane Talisman
Trinket: Ankh of Life
Main hand: Searing Golden Blade
Off hand: Thrash's Trash

Other Shaman specs

Enhancement Shaman

Shaman builds · Gear planner · Downrank calculator

How this sim works

Speculation: gear rankings, rotations and simulated performance are provisional estimates, not confirmed launch loot or guaranteed results. Player observations will refine them.

From the Forever client

Abilities. Every rank of every ability: damage and its range, growth per level up to the rank's max level, spell power share (coefficient), mana, rage or energy cost, cast time, global cooldown, cooldown and shared cooldowns, duration, tick period, combo point scaling, and the spells a rank triggers.
Talents. Every talent rank's value from the talent window (the trait tree), and the passive talents' modifiers applied through the client's class masks: damage, crit chance and crit damage, hit, cast time, cost, cooldown and duration.
Items. Item stats, weapon damage and speed, armour.
Ratings and base mana. Hit, crit and haste ratings (10 hit, 14 crit, 10 haste rating per 1%, gametables/combatratings.txt) and base mana by class and level (gametables/basemp.txt).
Party buffs and consumables. Their values at your level: the rank a player of that level has, and the best elixir, food or scroll you can use.
Proc chances in talent text. Chances the talent window states (Arcane Concentration, Unbridled Wrath, Ruthlessness, Relentless Strikes, Nightfall, Elemental Focus, Flurry, Windfury Weapon's 20%) are used as written.

ForeverDB's pick

Defaults. The default build is the class page's recommended dungeon build for the level (Feral: the cat and bear levelling build), and the default gear is the gear planner's best item per slot at the level.

Speculation

Base stats. Strength, Agility, Stamina, Intellect and Spirit before gear are Classic's (CMaNGOS player_levelstats) for your class and one race; racial abilities aren't simulated. Why: The client has no table for them.
Attack power, crit and mana from stats. Classic's attack power formulas per class; Agility for 1% melee crit and Intellect for 1% spell crit at Classic's level-60 ratios scaled to your level; 15 mana per Intellect; Classic's base spell crit. Why: Server-side in Classic, not in the client.
Attack table. Melee and ranged: 5% miss against a target your level plus 0.1% per defence point (0.2% when 11+ higher), 19% more for dual wielding, 5% dodge (+0.5% per level), no parry (you attack from behind), 10% glancing blows per level of difference plus 10% (white hits only), 1% crit lost per level the target is above you. Special attacks roll twice (hit, then crit). Crits deal 200% (melee and ranged) or 150% (spells). Why: Classic's rules; Blizzard hasn't said Forever changed them.
Spell hit and resistance. Spells miss 4%, 5%, 6% or 17% of the time against a target 0 to 3 levels higher (at least 1%), and a higher-level target resists 8 per level, taking Classic's average partial resist off non-binary spells. Why: Classic's rules.
Armour. Damage reduction = armour / (armour + 400 + 85 x your level). The target's armour is a Classic warrior-type mob's at its level (CMaNGOS) unless you set it. Why: Creatures' armour is server-side, and the client's armour table (armormitigationbylvl) isn't Classic's formula; we don't know which the servers use.
Resources. Mana regenerates every 2 sec: Classic's Spirit formula outside the five-second rule, plus mp5. Energy: 20 every 2 sec. Rage: 7.5 x damage / the level's rage conversion (Classic), none from Heroic Strike swings. Why: Classic's rules.
Global cooldown and haste. The global cooldown is each ability's own from the client and isn't shortened by haste; haste rating speeds up swings and casts. Why: The client gives the cooldown, not whether haste changes it.
Damage over time. Damage over time is fixed when it lands (snapshot), reapplying restarts it, and it can't crit. Debuffs on the target (Curse of the Elements, Shadow Weaving, Judgement of the Crusader) count on every tick. Why: Classic's behaviour.
Normalised weapon speeds. The client marks Sinister Strike, Aimed Shot and others as "Weapon damage (normalised)"; the speeds used are 1.7 sec (daggers), 2.4 (one-handers), 3.3 (two-handers), 2.8 (ranged). Why: The client names the effect but not the speeds (these are The Burning Crusade's).
Procs without a client rate. Seal of Command: 7 a minute (Classic). Omen of Clarity, Vindication and item "chance on hit" effects are left out. Why: The client leaves their rate to the server (Classic Era's client shows the same placeholders).
Server-side damage. Eviscerate adds 3% of attack power per combo point and Rip 6%, Execute adds 3 damage per extra Rage, Deep Wounds uses the talent's text, Judgement of Command and Searing Totem use their tooltips. Why: These are server scripts in the client.
Pets. A Hunter's beast: Classic's level-based damage (level ± a quarter) every 2.0 sec plus Strength x 2 - 20 attack power (CMaNGOS), 5 Focus a second for the client's Claw. The Imp casts Firebolt back to back with its own mana (not limited) and 5% crit. Cat Form claws: Classic's 0.85-1.25 x level damage per 1.0 sec swing, 2 attack power per Strength and 1 per Agility. Why: Pets' stats are server-side.
The fight. One target that doesn't move or hit back, for the fight length ±10% (Patchwerk). The target's health falls evenly, so "below 20%" abilities (Execute) are used in the last fifth. Add waves: 2 adds for 15 sec every 45 sec from 20 sec; only abilities that hit several targets gain from them. Why: A model, not the game.
No travel time, latency or movement. Spells land when the cast ends, the player reacts instantly, and nobody moves. Why: A model, not the game.